Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forge · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Valour are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Forge are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Forge hold a 30.9-point power-rating edge (40.8 v 71.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.4% in the Canadian Premier League, while Forge holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Forge
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Forge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20