Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aliance · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Valka are 0W-0D-3L in their last 3 (LLL), averaging 0.67 scored and 7.00 conceded, while Aliance are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 6.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Aliance hold a 37.8-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.1% in the Cup, while Aliance holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 83% BTTS chance and 86% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aliance
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
7.1%
Aliance has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 21 · avg 0.67/7.00
GF 34 · GA 11 · avg 6.80/2.20