Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Molde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valerenga 3-4 Molde
Original prediction
Molde
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 35.6% | 30.9% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.2% | 19.8% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 40.1% | 49.3% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Molde
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Molde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ValerengaDLLWW
GF 15 · GA 13 · avg 3.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
MoldeWLDWL
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
ValerengaMolde
54.9Attack62.7
33.3Defence49.0
41.2Form52.9
44.0Power55.6
1.75xG2.38