Valerengavs
Fredrikstad
COMPLETEDNorway · Eliteserien · 9/20/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valerenga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valerenga 1-1 Fredrikstad
Original prediction
Valerenga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 47.2% | 45.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.8% | 21.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 28.1% | 32.8% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Valerenga
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Valerenga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 11 · avg 3.20/2.20
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00