Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ligorna · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valenzana 0-1 Ligorna
Original prediction
Ligorna
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.00 | 22.5% | 34.3% | 11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.3% | 28.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 51.2% | 37.6% | -13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Ligorna
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Ligorna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ValenzanaLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
LigornaLWWWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ValenzanaLigorna
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.44xG1.23