GGOALVIO

Australia · Northern NSW NPL · 5/3/2023, 10:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Weston Bears · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

Valentine are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Weston Bears are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Weston Bears hold a 22.3-point power-rating edge (40.1 v 62.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.1% in the Northern NSW NPL, while Weston Bears holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Weston Bears

Probability

68.1%

Model confidence

68.1%

Weston Bears has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ValentineLLDWD

GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Weston BearsWDWWD

GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ValentineWeston Bears
34.9Attack76.2
38.1Defence47.6
39.7Form63.5
40.1Power62.4
1.13xG2.83
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