GGOALVIO

Australia · Northern NSW NPL · 4/13/2024, 7:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Weston Bears · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

Valentine are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Weston Bears are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Weston Bears hold a 22.3-point power-rating edge (40.1 v 62.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 68.1% in the Northern NSW NPL, while Weston Bears holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 74% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Weston Bears

Probability

68.1%

Model confidence

68.1%

Weston Bears has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ValentineLDWWW

GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Weston BearsWLLLD

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ValentineWeston Bears
34.9Attack76.2
38.1Defence47.6
39.7Form63.5
40.1Power62.4
1.13xG2.83
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