Valenciennesvs
Le Puy Foot
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 9/26/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Puy Foot · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valenciennes 2-1 Le Puy Foot
Original prediction
Le Puy Foot
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.7% | 32.1% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.4% | 29.9% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.9% | 37.9% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Le Puy Foot
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Le Puy Foot has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20