Valenciavs
Villarreal
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/24/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Villarreal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valencia 1-2 Villarreal
Original prediction
Villarreal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.39 | 28.1% | 25.8% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.7% | 26.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 45.2% | 47.3% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Villarreal
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Villarreal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40