Valenciavs
Real Sociedad
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valencia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad
Original prediction
Valencia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 34.4% | 36.6% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 28.4% | 27.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 37.2% | 35.9% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Valencia
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Valencia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60