Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valencia 0-5 Barcelona
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.73 | 9.8% | 21.4% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.08 | 15.6% | 23.7% | 8.1 pts |
| Away | 1.27 | 74.6% | 54.9% | -19.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ValenciaLLDLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BarcelonaWWWWW
GF 19 · GA 5 · avg 3.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ValenciaBarcelona
11.1Attack100.0
55.6Defence77.8
11.1Form100.0
29.5Power92.0
0.94xG1.70