Valenciavs
Athletic Club
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Valencia 0-1 Athletic Club, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Valencia 0-0 Athletic Club
Original prediction
Athletic Club
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 07:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 29.3% | 22.8% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.8% | 27.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 41.9% | 49.3% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Projected Score
Valencia 0–1 Athletic Club
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Athletic Club has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ValenciaDLWLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Athletic ClubDWDDW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ValenciaAthletic Club
25.0Attack33.3
37.5Defence71.4
20.8Form42.9
30.6Power49.9
0.64xG1.30