Valencia IIvs
Castellón II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valencia II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Valencia II 1-2 Castellón II
Original prediction
Valencia II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 56.5% | 11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.0% | 21.1% | -6.0 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.4% | 22.5% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Valencia II
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Valencia II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00