Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Vado 1-0 Forli
Original prediction
Vado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.7% | 39.3% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.9% | 29.6% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 37.4% | 31.1% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Vado
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Vado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
VadoDLLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ForliDDDWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
VadoForli
0.0Attack36.9
100.0Defence52.3
33.3Form36.0
45.3Power43.8
1.28xG0.84