V-varen Nagasakivs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (15%), 0-3 (14%), 0-4 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
V-varen Nagasaki 4-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.33 | 14.8% | 7.0% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.68 | 20.0% | 13.1% | -6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 65.2% | 79.9% | 14.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–215%
- 2.0–314%
- 3.0–410%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
79.9%
Model confidence
79.9%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 12 · GA 0 · avg 2.40/0.00