V-varen Nagasakivs
Nagoya Grampus
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nagoya Grampus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
V-varen Nagasaki 2-0 Nagoya Grampus
Original prediction
Nagoya Grampus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.37 | 27.8% | 34.1% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26.0% | 25.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 46.2% | 40.9% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Nagoya Grampus
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Nagoya Grampus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20