V-varen Nagasakivs
Gamba Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gamba Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
V-varen Nagasaki 2-2 Gamba Osaka
Original prediction
Gamba Osaka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.45 | 27.1% | 31.1% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 27.1% | 26.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 45.8% | 42.8% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Gamba Osaka
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Gamba Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80