V-varen Nagasakivs
FC Tokyo
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 8/29/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Tokyo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
V-varen Nagasaki 0-3 FC Tokyo
Original prediction
FC Tokyo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.00 | 18.8% | 34.6% | 15.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.9% | 25.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 56.3% | 39.7% | -16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
FC Tokyo
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
FC Tokyo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60