V-varen Nagasakivs
Cerezo Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/19/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
V-varen Nagasaki · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Cerezo Osaka
Original prediction
V-varen Nagasaki
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 26.8% | 38.5% | 11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.6% | 26.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 46.7% | 35.5% | -11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
V-varen Nagasaki
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
V-varen Nagasaki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60