Uzbekistanvs
Iran
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iran · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Uzbekistan 3-1 Iran
Original prediction
Iran
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.6% | 30.6% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.8% | 27.7% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 36.6% | 41.7% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Iran
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Iran has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UzbekistanLLWDD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
IranWWWLD
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
UzbekistanIran
61.9Attack83.3
57.1Defence83.3
66.7Form88.9
62.9Power84.2
1.23xG1.73