Uzbekistan U23vs
Japan U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Asian Games · 9/30/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Japan U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Uzbekistan U23 1-1 Japan U23
Original prediction
Japan U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 12:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.04 | 15.2% | 33.7% | 18.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.6% | 26.2% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 60.3% | 40.1% | -20.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Japan U23
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Japan U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20