Uxbridgevs
AFC Hornchurch
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uxbridge · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Uxbridge 0-4 AFC Hornchurch
Original prediction
Uxbridge
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.91 | 18.5% | 41.9% | 23.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 21.6% | 24.3% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 60.0% | 33.8% | -26.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
23.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Uxbridge
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Uxbridge has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40