Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Utrecht · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Utrecht 3-1 Willem II
Original prediction
Utrecht
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 62.7% | 55.2% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.54 | 20.6% | 21.1% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 5.62 | 16.7% | 23.7% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Utrecht
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
Utrecht has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UtrechtLWDLD
GF 9 · GA 18 · avg 1.80/3.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Willem IILLDLD
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
UtrechtWillem II
42.9Attack28.6
0.0Defence4.8
19.0Form9.5
24.0Power19.1
2.26xG1.45