Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lyon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Utrecht are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lyon are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Lyon hold a 17.4-point power-rating edge (47.9 v 65.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lyon holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lyon
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Lyon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60