Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Utebo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Utebo 0-1 Reddis
Original prediction
Utebo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.3% | 42.4% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 28.9% | 28.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 30.8% | 28.7% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Utebo
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Utebo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UteboWDDLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
ReddisWLLLL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
UteboReddis
44.4Attack11.1
66.7Defence66.7
55.6Form33.3
59.1Power40.3
1.30xG0.87