Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Utebo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Utebo 0-0 Arnedo
Original prediction
Utebo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.7% | 54.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.4% | 25.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 21.9% | 20.4% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Utebo
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Utebo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UteboDLWDD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
ArnedoLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
UteboArnedo
33.3Attack20.0
66.7Defence0.0
41.7Form0.0
50.3Power12.0
1.75xG0.70