UTC Cajamarcavs
Sporting Cristal
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting Cristal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UTC Cajamarca 0-1 Sporting Cristal
Original prediction
Sporting Cristal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.55 | 26.0% | 22.9% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.0% | 22.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 47.9% | 54.6% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Sporting Cristal
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
54.6%
Sporting Cristal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40