UTC Cajamarcavs
FBC Melgar
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FBC Melgar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC Melgar
Original prediction
FBC Melgar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.08 | 18.1% | 17.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.7% | 21.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 59.2% | 60.1% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
FBC Melgar
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
60.1%
FBC Melgar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00