Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
USM Alger · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: USM Alger 1-0 JS Saoura, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
USM Alger 1-0 JS Saoura
Original prediction
USM Alger
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.4% | 50.0% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.0% | 28.6% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 6.62 | 13.6% | 21.4% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Projected Score
USM Alger 1–0 JS Saoura
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
USM Alger
Probability
50.0%
Model confidence
50.0%
USM Alger has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USM AlgerLWWDD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JS SaouraDDLLW
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
USM AlgerJS Saoura
41.7Attack0.0
75.0Defence55.6
58.3Form22.2
60.3Power29.0
1.28xG0.65