Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
USA W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
USA W 2-2 Spain W
Original prediction
USA W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.3% | 42.1% | 9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.1% | 27.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.6% | 30.3% | -11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
USA W
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
USA W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USA WLWLLL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Spain WWWWWL
GF 17 · GA 2 · avg 3.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
USA WSpain W
66.7Attack66.7
73.3Defence100.0
60.0Form100.0
63.9Power88.7
1.99xG0.92