Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
USA W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
USA W 0-2 Spain W
Original prediction
USA W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.17 | 28.4% | 44.5% | 16.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.3% | 26.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.3% | 29.1% | -15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
USA W
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
USA W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USA WWLLLL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Spain WWWWLW
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
USA WSpain W
74.1Attack50.0
77.8Defence50.0
66.7Form50.0
69.7Power50.0
2.56xG0.84