Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
USA · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
USA 4-1 Peru
Original prediction
USA
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.2% | 57.4% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.6% | 24.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 6.52 | 14.2% | 18.6% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
USA
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
USA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USALWLLW
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PeruLWDLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
USAPeru
66.7Attack16.7
71.4Defence50.0
52.4Form33.3
60.9Power36.8
2.05xG0.70