Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mexico · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
USA 3-0 Mexico
Original prediction
Mexico
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 33.6% | 26.3% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.2% | 25.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 39.3% | 48.4% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Mexico
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Mexico has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USAWWLWL
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MexicoDDWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
USAMexico
77.8Attack56.7
22.2Defence86.7
50.0Form73.3
50.7Power72.2
1.06xG2.18