Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
USA · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
USA 4-2 Chile
Original prediction
USA
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 64.5% | 45.9% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 21.3% | 25.1% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 6.53 | 14.2% | 29.0% | 14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
USA
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
USA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USAWLWLL
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ChileLWLWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
USAChile
66.7Attack33.3
20.0Defence55.6
40.0Form33.3
43.4Power43.7
1.74xG1.52