Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
USA · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
USA 1-0 Canada
Original prediction
USA
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.3% | 40.1% | -15.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.7% | 26.2% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.40 | 21.0% | 33.7% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
USA
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
USA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USAWWWLW
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
CanadaWWDWD
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
USACanada
81.0Attack42.9
33.3Defence85.7
57.1Form71.4
56.9Power69.0
1.44xG1.54