World Cup
USA
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USA leads with 54% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
USA head into this in World Cup fixture at Lumen Field in strong form (WLWLW), while Australia arrive in mixed form (DDLW). USA have a 67% win rate across their last 6 matches, compared to 25% for Australia over 4 games.
The model rates USA's attack at 78/100 against a 75/100 Australia defence, and Australia's attack at 25/100 against a 46/100 USA backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.
USA have won 3 of their last 4 home fixtures, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game at home. Australia have won 1 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.
USA have generated 0.95 xG per game recently while conceding 0.92 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Australia have generated 0.22 xG per game recently while conceding 0.65 xG per match.
USA have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The GoalVio engine projects USA to win with 54% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: USA 5354%, Draw 2320%, Australia 2326%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.
Head to head
Recent form
USA
Australia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win USA vs Australia?
GoalVio's model predicts USA to win with 54% confidence.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Australia?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.
Will both teams score in USA vs Australia?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in USA vs Australia?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.