Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
USA U19 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
USA U19 2-0 Wales U19
Original prediction
USA U19
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 66.3% | 62.7% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 19.8% | 20.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 6.50 | 13.8% | 16.9% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
USA U19
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
USA U19 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
USA U19WWWDW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Wales U19LWLWL
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
USA U19Wales U19
66.7Attack45.8
73.3Defence4.2
73.3Form33.3
71.4Power30.4
3.03xG0.85