US Virgin Islandsvs
Saint Martin
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Saint Martin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
US Virgin Islands 0-5 Saint Martin
Original prediction
Saint Martin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.63 | 8.6% | 35.9% | 27.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.82 | 15.7% | 23.1% | 7.4 pts |
| Away | 1.21 | 75.7% | 41.1% | -34.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-34.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Saint Martin
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Saint Martin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20