US Mondorf-les-bainsvs
Wiltz
COMPLETEDLuxembourg · National Division · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
US Mondorf-les-bains · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (9%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
US Mondorf-les-bains 4-1 Wiltz
Original prediction
US Mondorf-les-bains
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.22 | 73.9% | 78.1% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.45 | 16.5% | 12.7% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 9.43 | 9.6% | 9.2% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–19%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
US Mondorf-les-bains
Probability
78.1%
Model confidence
78.1%
US Mondorf-les-bains has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00