US Mondorf-les-bainsvs
Progres Niederkorn
COMPLETEDLuxembourg · National Division · 8/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
US Mondorf-les-bains · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
US Mondorf-les-bains 2-1 Progres Niederkorn
Original prediction
US Mondorf-les-bains
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 46.0% | 44.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.0% | 25.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 27.0% | 29.7% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
US Mondorf-les-bains
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
US Mondorf-les-bains has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60