US Hostertvs
Progres Niederkorn
COMPLETEDLuxembourg · National Division · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Progres Niederkorn · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
US Hostert 0-2 Progres Niederkorn
Original prediction
Progres Niederkorn
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.88 | 23.3% | 28.6% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.8% | 25.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 51.9% | 46.0% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Progres Niederkorn
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Progres Niederkorn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80