US Ben Guerdanevs
Stade Tunisien
COMPLETEDTunisia · Ligue 1 · 10/23/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
US Ben Guerdane · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
US Ben Guerdane 1-0 Stade Tunisien
Original prediction
US Ben Guerdane
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 12:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 35.5% | 43.3% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.65 | 34.2% | 29.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 30.3% | 27.6% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
US Ben Guerdane
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
US Ben Guerdane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00