US Ben Guerdanevs
CS Sfaxien
COMPLETEDTunisia · Ligue 1 · 9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
US Ben Guerdane 1-1 CS Sfaxien
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.71 | 24.4% | 33.6% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.74 | 33.0% | 30.3% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 42.6% | 36.1% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.74 · Draw 1.74 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.3%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
US Ben GuerdaneDWLDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CS SfaxienWDWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
US Ben GuerdaneCS Sfaxien
83.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence66.7
66.7Form66.7
64.8Power64.8
1.15xG1.06