World Cup
Uruguay
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Spain leads with 63% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Match insights
Uruguay head into this in World Cup fixture at Estadio Akron in mixed form (LDD), while Spain arrive in outstanding form (WWWWW). Uruguay have a 0% win rate across their last 3 matches, compared to 88% for Spain over 8 games.
The model rates Uruguay's attack at 34/100 against a 89/100 Spain defence, and Spain's attack at 64/100 against a 53/100 Uruguay backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.
Uruguay have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 2 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per home match. Spain have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.
Uruguay have generated 1.24 xG per game recently while conceding 0.81 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Spain have generated 2.42 xG per game recently while conceding 0.43 xG per match.
Spain have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The GoalVio engine projects Spain to win with 62% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Uruguay 1370%, Draw 2320%, Spain 6310%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.
Head to head
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Frequently asked questions
Who will win Uruguay vs Spain?
GoalVio's model predicts Spain to win with 62% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Spain?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.
Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Spain?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Uruguay vs Spain?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.