Cape Verde Islands leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Match insights

Uruguay head into this in World Cup fixture at Hard Rock Stadium in mixed form (LDD), while Cape Verde Islands arrive finding it hard to convert draws into wins (LDDD). Uruguay have a 0% win rate across their last 3 matches, compared to 0% for Cape Verde Islands over 4 games.

The model rates Uruguay's attack at 34/100 against a 56/100 Cape Verde Islands defence, and Cape Verde Islands's attack at 34/100 against a 53/100 Uruguay backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Uruguay have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 2 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per home match. Cape Verde Islands have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 4 away matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

Uruguay have generated 1.24 xG per game recently while conceding 0.81 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Cape Verde Islands have generated 1.15 xG per game recently while conceding 1.27 xG per match.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Cape Verde Islands to win with 46% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 0-1. Win probabilities: Uruguay 2920%, Draw 2700%, Cape Verde Islands 4380%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Recent form

Uruguay

L

vs Spain

27 Jun 2026

0–1

xG 0.2

D

vs Cape Verde Islands

21 Jun 2026

2–2

xG 2.3

D

@ Saudi Arabia

15 Jun 2026

1–1

Cape Verde Islands

L

@ Argentina

3 Jul 2026

2–3

D

vs Saudi Arabia

27 Jun 2026

0–0

xG 1.5

D

@ Uruguay

21 Jun 2026

2–2

xG 0.8

D

@ Spain

15 Jun 2026

0–0

D

@ Egypt

17 Nov 2025

1–1

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