Urawavs
V-varen Nagasaki
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/25/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Urawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Urawa 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki
Original prediction
Urawa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 57.8% | 52.0% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.9% | 20.4% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 5.10 | 18.3% | 27.7% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Urawa
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Urawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UrawaWWWLW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
V-varen NagasakiWLDLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UrawaV-varen Nagasaki
60.6Attack45.5
30.3Defence45.5
54.5Form36.4
51.1Power43.4
2.19xG1.68