Urawavs
Omiya Ardija
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 10/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Urawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Urawa 3-2 Omiya Ardija
Original prediction
Urawa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.5% | 44.5% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 26.2% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.41 | 20.6% | 29.3% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Urawa
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Urawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UrawaWWLWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Omiya ArdijaDWDDD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
UrawaOmiya Ardija
100.0Attack66.7
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
97.0Power88.7
1.86xG1.48