Urawavs
JEF United Chiba
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/21/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Urawa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Urawa 3-2 JEF United Chiba
Original prediction
Urawa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 57.4% | 67.2% | 9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.1% | 18.3% | -5.7 pts |
| Away | 5.04 | 18.6% | 14.5% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Urawa
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
Urawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UrawaWWLWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
JEF United ChibaDDLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
UrawaJEF United Chiba
56.7Attack26.7
30.0Defence36.7
50.0Form20.0
48.2Power30.6
2.44xG0.96