Urawavs
Fagiano Okayama
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/13/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Urawa 1-2 Fagiano Okayama
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 39.8% | 37.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.8% | 24.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.4% | 38.1% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00