Ural U20vs
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
COMPLETEDRussia · Youth Championship · 10/16/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 1-4 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ural U20 5-7 Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Original prediction
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.37 | 16.8% | 15.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.5% | 15.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 65.7% | 68.9% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.1–47%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Probability
68.9%
Model confidence
68.9%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60